The chances of a socialist democrat becoming mayor of Los Angeles appeared to collapse after Spencer Pratt obliterated her during their recent debate.
Pratt crushed City Councilwoman Nithya Raman when she tried to claim that her policies had succeeded in easing the homelessness crisis in L.A., and the moment went viral on social media soon afterward.
‘Before any polls or punditry, prediction markets quantified exactly what we all saw with our eyes: the Titanic hitting an iceberg.’
Although polling since the debate has not yet been released, the Kalshi prediction market documented that Raman’s chances to win the election have absolutely cratered.
At one point in late April, Kalshi predicted that Raman had an astounding 64% chance of winning the mayoral race. After the debate on Wednesday, her chances precipitously dropped to 14% — a loss of 50 percentage points.
Much of that may have been her unsteady and unsure performance during the debate. When challenged on homelessness, Raman stumbled after Pratt beat her down.
“The reality is, no matter how many beds you give these people, they are on super meth,” Pratt explained about the homelessness crisis. “They are on fentanyl. The DEA statistic says 93% of this is a drug addiction problem. I will go below the Harbor Freeway tomorrow with [Raman], and we can find some of these people she’s going to offer treatment for. She’s going to get stabbed in the neck!”
While some have doubted the value of prediction markets, BlazeTV host Stu Burguiere explained how they can be a leading indicator before polling can be completed.
“This is something that prediction markets do incredibly well,” he said. “Before any polls or punditry, prediction markets quantified exactly what we all saw with our eyes: the Titanic hitting an iceberg.”
He also pointed out that the large drop in her support was even worse than that of former President Joe Biden just before he dropped out of his re-election campaign in 2024.
“Joe Biden only dropped about 15 percentage points after his debate. That’s how bad she was,” said Burguiere of Raman.
RELATED: LA Times torched for trying to disqualify Pratt for mayor — because his home burned down
Raman has also pulled out of another mayoral debate, though she was preceded by incumbent L.A. Mayor Karen Bass and Pratt as well. The debate has since been canceled.
Polling before the debate had Pratt in second place with 10% support and Bass in first place with 25%, but another 40% remained undecided, keeping the election up in the air.
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Los angeles mayoral election, Spencer pratt, Pratt vs nithya raman, Prediction markets, Politics
