In recent years, Republicans have enjoyed sweeping victories in the red state of Iowa, most recently with President Donald Trump’s 13-point statewide victory in the 2024 presidential election. However, there are warning signs that this monumental lead is beginning to erode.

For the first time in three years, Democrats managed to break the Republicans’ supermajority after Iowa Democrat Catelin Drey defeated Republican Christopher Prosch for an open state Senate seat on Tuesday. Drey won the district by a jaw-dropping 10 points, which is a dramatic departure from Trump’s 11-point victory in the district back in November.

‘If it can happen in Woodbury County, Iowa, this can happen anywhere in America.’

Steve Deace, a native Iowan and host of the “Steve Deace Show” on BlazeTV, cautioned that this shift is part of a growing political phenomenon in the Hawkeye State that poses a real threat to Republican leadership.

“This is not an isolated incident,” Deace told Blaze News. “They have been doing this to us for several years now. If they can do it in Woodbury County, which Trump won by 23 points in 2024, then they can pretty much do it absolutely everywhere.”

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Normally, Republicans easily sail to victory in Western Iowa, Deace said. They could even nominate “a ham sandwich for Congress” and it would win because “there is no blue area in that part of the state.” But now that Trump will no longer appear on the ballot, Republicans may have a tougher time.

“What we have seen as a trend line for the last several years now is that if Trump is not on the ballot, our people just don’t turn out. That’s just a fact.”

After Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds announced she would not seek re-election, her imminent departure opened the playing field to a slew of candidates. Notably, Reynolds endorsed Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida’s presidential bid in 2023.

On the Democratic side, former Assistant Attorney General Rob Sand has pitched himself as a gun-toting moderate in an effort to capture some of the Republican vote. On the Republican side, Congressman Randy Feenstra has been considered the front-runner, but Deace says he “excites no one.”

“This is just a complete indictment of the complacency of Republicans,” Deace told Blaze News. “There’s energy on the other side.”

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Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call

One source familiar with Iowa’s ongoing political battles told Blaze News that the GOP’s inability to put forward an energizing candidate is the product of a perfect political storm.

Sand has focused much of his campaign on improving water quality and advocating against the CO2 pipeline projects, echoing the concerns of landowners and farmers. In doing so, Sand and other Democrats have made an effort to make Republicans synonymous with the pipeline, furthering the apparent divide between the GOP candidates and their constituents.

“There is a lot of grassroots to see [Feenstra] as the pipeline guy. … There’s just not excitement for candidates right now,” the source told Blaze News.

“Our people are just not motivated, by and large, to vote for the Republican Party brand as a brand anymore,” Deace told Blaze News. “And so you’ve got to prove to them you’re worth their time and effort for them to show up. And I think that this is a wake-up call for the next midterm.”

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The source, who was granted anonymity to speak freely about Iowa’s political landscape, said the disconnect between the conservative base and the lackluster candidates is ultimately because of external influence in politics.

“There is a little fatigue,” the source told Blaze News. “There are a lot of state senators and state reps who are very good, very conservative, if not the most conservative in the country overall. We’re so conservative that the moderates that are in there get more conservative voting records because they just don’t want to take the flak.”

“But there’s a money factor in play,” the source added, speaking about lawmakers who ascend to national politics. “There’s a reason a bunch of these guys don’t want to go to D.C. They want to stay home. They got a farm to worry about.”

“There are danger signs,” Deace told Blaze News. “Because if it can happen in Woodbury County, Iowa, this can happen anywhere in America.”

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​Ron desantis, Donald trump, Kim reynolds, Rob sand, Randy feenstra, Steve deace, Steve deace show, Iowa, Swing state, Blue state, Red state, Republicans, Democrats, Christopher prosch, Catelin drey, Pipelines, Woodbury county, Politics