Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at the New York Times, predicts a Donald Trump victory on Election Day could reveal the death of the Democratic Party as we know it.
In his Election Day newsletter, Cohn outlined what he believes are the four possible election outcomes: a big Kamala Harris victory, a repeat of 2020 (tight election with small margins in swing states), a repeat of 2022 (in which Republicans won the popular vote but lost key races), or a decisive Trump victory.
‘This scenario would reveal the extent that it destroyed the Democratic Party as we knew it, too.’
That final outcome, Cohn explained, could be more impactful on the future of American politics than people realize.
According to Cohn, this election “should be a Republican victory” if analyzed on paper. The reasons? The poor economy, President Joe Biden’s unpopularity, and the fact that voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. Cohn, moreover, explained the “signs of a Republican victory have been building for years,” citing Republican advantages in party identification, party registration, and Election Day turnout in battleground states.
What’s worse, Cohn said the polls — like they did in 2016 and 2020 — could be once again underestimating Trump.
“The pollsters never found a convincing explanation for what went wrong, and the simplest one is that they just can’t reach enough of Mr. Trump’s less engaged supporters. Despite their efforts over the last eight years, there may simply be no fix for this problem,” he wrote.
“In this scenario, Ms. Harris’s apparent strength among white and older voters, or her resilience in the Midwestern battlegrounds, is nothing more than another polling mirage — in exactly the same states where the polls got it wrong four and eight years ago,” Cohn explained. “Add in Mr. Trump’s gains among young, Black and Hispanic voters and you end up with a decisive victory for him.”
If this scenario plays out on Election Day, Cohn predicted that it would initiate a “new era of politics,” one defined by a historic voter realignment.
“The rise of Mr. Trump’s brand of conservative populism has transformed American politics. It redefined the basic political conflict between the two parties. It led to major demographic shifts, first with Mr. Trump making huge gains among the white working class and now with nonwhite voters, while Democrats gained among white college graduates,” Cohn wrote. “If the shifts endure after Mr. Trump, historians might well look back and say that the 2024 result was the culmination of the populist realignment he unleashed a decade ago.”
The result of that realignment, according to Cohn, is not only a Republican Party that does not resemble the GOP of old, but the death of the contemporary Democratic Party.
“It has long been clear that Mr. Trump’s rise destroyed the Republican Party as we knew it,” Cohn wrote. “This scenario would reveal the extent that it destroyed the Democratic Party as we knew it, too.”
Like Blaze News? Bypass the censors, sign up for our newsletters, and get stories like this direct to your inbox. Sign up here!
Donald trump, Election 2024, New york times, Democratic party, Kamala harris, Politics
