President-elect Donald Trump secured his victory over Vice President Kamala Harris early Wednesday morning, and exit polling indicates which demographics may be responsible.
Harris failed to drive support among voting groups like women, Latino men, and young voters, despite being historically Democratic, according to a CNN analysis comparing exit polls from the past three election cycles. While Trump was able to mobilize support among unlikely demographics, Harris’ inability to secure these key groups likely cost her the election.
While different demographics shifted in Trump’s favor, his greatest advantage over Harris may have been one key issue.
Although Democrats have historically secured the female vote, Harris underperformed compared to her predecessors. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won the female vote by 13 points in 2016, while President Joe Biden won it by 15 points in 2020. Harris, on the other hand, won the female vote by just 10 points, according to the latest CNN exit polling.
At the same time, Trump regained an edge with male voters that slightly slipped in 2020. Trump won the male vote by 11 points in 2016 but dipped down to just an 8-point advantage in 2020, according to CNN. This time around, Trump won the male vote by 10 points.
Latino men, more specifically, also shifted away from Harris and toward Trump. Clinton won Hispanic men by a staggering 31 points in 2016, and Biden won them by 23 points in 2020, according to CNN. Trump completely reversed this trend in 2024, winning Latino men by 10 points.
Minority voters across the board also swayed in Trump’s favor. In 2016, Clinton won by 50 points among minority voters with a college degree and 56 points among minority voters without a college degree, according to CNN. Biden lost some ground in 2020, winning college-educated minority voters by 43 points and non-college-educated minority voters by 46 points. Harris continued this downward trend, winning among college-educated minorities by 35 points and non-college-educated minorities by just 32 points.
Trump also gained ground among young voters. In 2016, Clinton won among voters aged 18 to 29 by 19 points, while in 2020, Biden won among the same age range by 24 points, according to CNN. This time around, Trump shrunk the Democratic advantage among young voters, with Harris winning by just 13 points.
While different demographics shifted in Trump’s favor, his greatest advantage over Harris may have been one key issue.
In 2024, roughly two-thirds of voters said the economy was poor, and nearly half of voters said they are doing worse now than they were four years ago, according to CNN. This sentiment inevitably gave Trump an advantage over Harris, who has served alongside Biden during these last four years.
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Donald trump, Kamala harris, Joe biden, Hilary clinton, 2024 presidential election, Presidential election, Election, Trump, Harris, Latino voters, Hispanic voters, Young voters, Female voters, Male voters, Economy, Minority voters, Politics
