CNN polling expert Harry Enten warned viewers that former President Donald Trump will win in a “blowout” if the polling is as wrong as it was in the 2020 presidential election.
‘Let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020.’
While the two candidates are neck-in-neck in many polls, Enten said that an even race is very good for Trump because he historically underperforms in polling and does far better at the ballot box.
“If the polls are exactly right, Kamala Harris gets 276 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 262 because she carries those Great Lake battleground states despite losing North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. But let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020,” Enten explained on Tuesday.
“What happens then?” he continued. “Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was leading in — Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia.”
However, the polling could go the other way as it did in 2022, Enten said. And in that case, Harris would run away with the election.
“In that particular case, now, the winner has flipped again. And Kamala Harris wins in a blowout with 319 electoral votes,” he said.
“So the bottom line here is, yes, we have those state polling averages,” he added. “But the real thing they tell us is that this race is too close to call. We’re probably not going to know who’s going to win for another month and perhaps another month and change.”
Enten has made similar points about the polling in a segment from August.
The segment with Enten’s analysis can be viewed on the video report from CNN on YouTube.
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Enten trump blowout, Trump blowout if like 2020, Polling 2024 underperform, Polling inaccuracies, Politics