CNN host Harry Enten warned Democrats this week they could trail Republicans by the largest margins in decades if they do not turn things around.
Enten, the resident stats expert at CNN, told Democrats to “hold the phone” if they think criticizing the Trump administration over the Jeffrey Epstein files is going to save them.
Instead, Trump’s support has been resilient among likely voters, with the Democrats in danger of taking a monumental backstep in the 2026 midterm elections.
‘Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point.’
Enten delivered the shocking numbers to CNN’s John Berman, giving him the grim “bottom line” for the Democrats.
“Democrats are behind their 2006 and 2018 paces when it comes to the generic congressional ballot.”
In Democrat versus Republican congressional ballot margins, the Democrat lead has shrunk by more than two times when compared to July 2005, when it was a +7-point margin. The gap remained the same in 2017, but in July 2025, the margin is now just a +2 for Democrats.
“Donald Trump may be unpopular, but Democrats have not come anywhere close to sealing the deal at this particular point,” Enten told his colleague.
The devastating numbers somehow got way worse for Democrats when breaking down the midterms race by race.
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When comparing chances for seat changes ahead of previous midterms under Republican presidents, Democrats were favored by +7 in 2005 and a whopping +33 in 2017, CNN showed.
The Democrats over performed in both cases, picking up 31 seats in the 2006 midterms and 41 seats in the 2018 midterms.
Now, CNN’s Enten showed Republicans are up a shocking 12 points at the same time this year ahead of the 2026 midterms.
“So it’s not just on the generic ballot where Democrats are behind their 2017 and 2005 pace. It’s actually when it comes seat by seat, you see that at least at this particular point, Republicans actually have more net pick-up opportunities,” Enten stressed.
“This doesn’t look anything like those wave elections back in 2006 or 2018,” he added.
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The stat guru concluded by showing the congressional ballot margin numbers were the same among voters in October 2024, before the presidential election, as they are now.
“Reality check,” Enten wrote on his X account. “Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace … at this point in the cycle.”
The host emphasized that the numbers he is seeing are indicative of when Republicans have held onto a House majority and appear strikingly similar to the 2024 election cycle.
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