Former President Donald Trump has taken the lead in the famed 538 election forecast model for the first time since it began measuring the 2024 presidential election.
‘A slow drip-drip-drip of polls showed the race tightening.’
Trump is now favored to win the election 52% in the model, which runs 1,000 simulations of the election. Harris has a 48% chance to win the election based on the model.
“The change in candidate’s fortunes came after a slow drip-drip-drip of polls showed the race tightening across the northern and Sun Belt battlegrounds,” explained data analyst G. Elliot Morris at the 538 site.
He said that new polling gave Trump a lead in Pennsylvania while lessening Harris’ lead in Michigan and tying up support in Wisconsin. Georgia and Arizona have also gone from toss-ups to being classified as leaning Republican.
Morris went on to caution against reading too much into the trend and said he still classifies the race a toss-up.
“While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the ‘lead’ tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.”
Other polling experts such as Harry Enten at CNN have cautioned Democrats that Harris needs to have a large lead in order to feel safe about the election results because Trump often underperforms in polling before an election.
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