Imagine if Republicans were to seize a pivotal moment to engage in a sustained national debate over issues like inflation, crime, national security threats, and the costs associated with Joe Biden’s border policies. No political analyst would suggest that Democrats could withstand such focused scrutiny on top national concerns where a supermajority of voters oppose Biden’s policies.
So, instead of avoiding a budget fight in September, why not confront it head-on? The timing of September 30, right as early voting begins, could be strategically ideal for a budget fight over the border. Why not leverage your strongest advantage when it matters the most?
It is political malpractice to employ a ‘run out the clock’ strategy based on the uneducated belief we’ve got this election in the bag.
Many of us have lamented how Republicans in recent months have given up every leverage point on every must-pass bill for the remainder of Biden’s term. But that assertion is not technically true. As the fiscal year 2024 budget capitulation played out well into the new year, we are just a few months away from the deadline for 2025 government funding, which comes due on September 30. None of us ever viewed fiscal year 2025 as a factor based on the assumption that Republicans would never risk a government shutdown fight right before the election.
But shouldn’t the assumption be the exact opposite?
Why wouldn’t Republicans want to hang the border invasion funding over the Democrats’ heads precisely as people are beginning to vote? After all, we are not discussing a budget fight defunding Social Security or popular programs people rely upon. We are talking about the funding for a foreign invasion of squatters, gang members, murderers, rapists, and, increasingly, Middle Eastern terrorists and military-age Chinese men.
Republicans have enough news stories to inundate a government-funding debate with so many damning consequences of the Biden invasion that Democrats would either need to relent or suffer electoral blowback. Even 42% of Democratic voters support mass deportation. Simply turning back new invaders would easily garner supermajority support.
The fact nobody is pushing this strategy exposes the mistake conservatives, including Trump, are making with this election. Trump has been politically matriculated into the establishment way of thinking: We merely need to run out the clock on the election, give Democrats everything they want, and avoid any intra-party fights and drama. Once he wins the election, then we will somehow fix everything. This explains why Trump is backing Mike Johnson’s speakership and strategy of “clearing the decks” of any leverage and why he is endorsing every down-ballot establishment candidate in the primaries.
But the strategy wrongly assumes that Trump is a shoo-in and that we don’t need to make any big plays to win. While it’s certainly possible for him to beat Biden, it is quite bizarre — given the losing streak since the 2017 Virginia elections — that we would assume we are sitting on an insurmountable lead and therefore opt for the “run out the clock” strategy.
Have we learned nothing from the 2022 elections? Or nearly every special election since then? Or the Wisconsin Supreme Court elections? Or the Pennsylvania Supreme Court elections? Is nobody the least bit curious why Democrats won in 2022 and continue to win most contentious special elections?
The polls are internally conflicting and all over the map. They predicted a massive GOP wave in 2022, yet for the first time ever (aside from after 9/11) the party in the White House won the midterms, even in the midst of a terrible economy. Why would we assume things will change on their own by repeating the same lazy and complacent “look at the polls” mantra while refusing to pick any policy fights?
To understand why it’s imperative for Trump to demand a border fight on the budget, it’s instructive to examine why Republicans continue to lose elections.
The current electoral climate truly defies 200 years of history. Typically, the party occupying the White House always loses the midterm elections to varying degrees, even if the world is relatively tranquil and the economy is humming and the incumbent president is charismatic and well-liked. Think of 2010 and 1994 as examples of when Republicans crushed the midterms against well-liked presidents — despite much less political and cultural malaise — because of blowback to radical Democrat policies.
Yet, here we are with an incontinent, dementia-ridden president, record affordability problems, a border invasion, rising crime, and a litany of radical policies that clearly don’t poll well with swing voters, and still Democrats remain ahead in nearly every Senate race.
Every conservative should ask how Republicans managed to lose in 2022 (and most elections since) rather than making the wave elections of 1994 and 2010 look like red ripples? Unless and until that question is answered, it is political malpractice to employ a “run out the clock” strategy based on the uneducated belief we’ve got this election in the bag because “this time is different.”
What should be clear, based on the dichotomy between Democrats’ poor polling on issues and job approval versus their electoral success, is that we are failing to bring these auspicious political issues to the forefront of voters’ minds. The modern Republican Party is struggling due to a combination of internal weakness, subversive elements, and the personal and image-related baggage of Trump, causing elections to become more about drama than substantive issues.
Knowing that, the best way to focus the election on the issues that bedevil the Democrats would be to draw a line on our most popular issue during a budget fight just as voting begins.
Wouldn’t Trump rather have a government shutdown over Biden refusing to relinquish funding for Venezuelan gangs and Middle Eastern terrorists crashing into our Marine base than a discussion over Stormy Daniels or his latest court hearing?
If we continue to stand for nothing and do nothing to highlight Biden’s unpopular policies, voters will remain exactly where they are, and Republicans will lose yet again.
Democrats have superior ground game, a first-rate mail-in-ballot and early-voting operation, and they are outspending Republicans by a mile in nearly every race. Unless Republicans make a big play and win over enough suburban swing voters who care about safety and security, they are unlikely to overcome the built-in blue firewall on the ground that has defied political science during recent elections.
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