An update to Nate Silver’s election prediction model has former President Donald Trump increasing his chances to beat Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
Previously, the model said that Trump had a 52.4% chance to beat Harris, but the updated assessment from Wednesday drops her chances to 41.6%. It places Trump’s chances to beat Harris at an astounding 58.3%.
‘They haven’t really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer.’
The model calculates that Trump would win 274.7 electoral votes while Harris would only garner 263.3. To win the election, a candidate must win a majority of electoral votes, or more than 270.
Silver explained that new polling from swing states didn’t help the Harris campaign because the model adjusts against partisan-sponsored polling that showed the two candidates in a tie.
“Our polling averages apply a relatively harsh ‘house effects’ adjustment to partisan-sponsored polls, so it interprets ties in partisan polls as losing. And PA/MI/WI polls are really important to the forecast,” wrote Silver.
He said Harris had dropped her lead in Pennsylvania from 1.8% to only 1%.
“In addition to Pennsylvania, Michigan has become something of an issue for Harris. National polls and polls of other swing states [are] mostly decent for Harris, but erosion in PA/MI hurts a lot in the model,” he explained.
He went on to say that some of Harris’ weakness comes from hiring so many Biden people onto her campaign.
“There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what. Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro [is] beginning to look bad and they haven’t really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer,” he added.
Silver also had a tip on how to improve Harris’ chances to win.
“If I were a rich D donor and wanted to maximize Kamala’s chances of winning, I’d pay a $10M bounty to lure ex-Biden senior staffers away from the campaign and replace them with fresher/better people. Give them a nice job consulting on the Luxembourg parliamentary election etc.,” he tweeted.
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Nate silver forecast, Trump chances to win, Trump trouncing harris, Harris losing swing states, Politics