Democrats smell blood in the water. From the threat of a new Middle East war to proposed changes to Medicaid and food stamps, they see dozens of opportunities to regain political ground. But their own dysfunction — infighting, petty rivalries, and a stunning lack of talent — is holding them back. No rising star has emerged. No one seems capable of carrying the flag.
America faces the prospect of another foreign war, one that’s deeply unpopular and threatening to split President Donald Trump’s coalition. Polling remains limited, but a quick Washington Post survey found 45% of Americans oppose involvement. Only 25% support it.
Aside from strong polling numbers, the best news for Republicans is that Democrats remain in total disarray.
And the Democrats? Good luck finding a credible opposition voice. Is it Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, who spent her time in a Senate hearing shouting about the L.A. riots before filibustering her own line of questioning? Or maybe it’s Tim Kaine of Virginia — yes, still in the Senate nearly a decade after his dismal turn as Hillary Clinton’s running mate.
Meanwhile, trouble looms for the president’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. When Democrats describe it as a plan to gut Medicaid and food stamps while bankrupting rural hospitals to benefit corporations, support craters. But when Republicans explain the reforms — cutting off benefits to illegal immigrants, purging the deceased from the rolls, and requiring work from able-bodied men who admit to spending most of their time playing video games — voters respond differently. Those policies poll at 82%, 86%, and 72%, respectively.
Assume you’ll never persuade the 14% of Americans who apparently support Medicaid for the dead. That leaves Republicans with near-total lock on public opinion. Proposals like eliminating taxes on tips and overtime also enjoy overwhelming support. So does deporting criminal aliens. And Democrats? Their response has consisted mostly of street theater — getting arrested and setting fires in Los Angeles while waving Mexican flags. Just wait until one of their protests ends with a federal agent injured or killed.
The more serious threat to the GOP comes from inside the tent: the Senate Republican push to scrap the health care provider tax. Barring a major war, we’ll unpack that mess in Monday’s newsletter. The short version: Republicans have every political incentive to avoid this fight — and they’re scrambling to fix it before it blows up.
Republicans fear a political repeat of Obamacare — but in reverse. If Democrats manage to define the GOP’s top legislative achievement more effectively than Republicans can, they’ll seize the advantage. To prevent that, Republicans need to campaign now — and outwork the Democrats from the start. It’s a race to frame the narrative, and GOP super PACs are already buying airtime.
Aside from strong polling numbers, the best news for Republicans is that Democrats remain in total disarray. Even with the usual advantage of being the opposition party, they can’t get out of their own way. The fallout from the L.A. riots continues, and the DNC just forced out activist turned Vice Chair David Hogg in a chaotic leadership shake-up.
Then came the public resignations. Randi Weingarten — the COVID-era school-closer in chief — and Lee Saunders of AFSCME both quit their DNC committee posts, blaming the crying and dithering of Chairman Ken Martin. When union bosses start walking, it’s rarely a sign of strength.
Unless New York Democrat Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s latest branding brainstorm — the “We Are All Going to Die Bill” — magically catches fire like “Obamacare” once did, Republicans hold the upper hand.
Even Rahm Emanuel sees it. “We’re in the most serious existential crisis with Donald Trump both at home and abroad — and with the biggest political opportunity in a decade,” the former Obama chief of staff and possible 2028 contender complained this week. “And the DNC has spent six months on a firing squad in the circle and can’t even fire a shot out. And Trump’s world is a target-rich environment.”
Yes, it is. But you still have to take the shot.
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Opinion & analysis, Politics